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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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    历史情境中的特区经济增长与产业转型

    • 作者:姬超出版日期:2015年12月
    • 报告大小:1.09MB
    • 报告字数:20492 字所属丛书:
    • 所属图书:中国经济特区研究(2015年第...

    摘要

    产业是经济增长的载体,因而在真实的历史情境中审视经济增长和产业转型的共生关系,有助于融合产业经济与经济增长理论,实现持续的经济增长。本文在真实的经济发展场景中考察和比较五个经济特区的增长与结构演变差异,通过产业发展超前系数、Lilien值和More值分别测算了特区产业转型的方向和速度,勾勒了特区产业结构演变的基本图景之后,进一步从单要素和全要素生产率的角度对产业转型的增长效应进行分解,并对产业转型的影响因素加以计量验证。结果表明:第一,产业转型的结构效应对经济增长的贡献呈递减趋势,长期的经济增长更加依赖产业内技术进步效应;第二,不同地区产业转型的结构效应长期的演化方向大体一致,但演化路径却存在极大差异,可持续增长要求兼顾产业结构的合理化和高级化;第三,产业转型根植于经济增长系统,两者互为因果而动态累积,可持续增长要求总量与结构相互适应。

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    Abstract

    Industrial transformation and upgrading are important part of the economic growth process,so to clarify the relationship between the structure and the amount has become the key to sustainable economic growth,also the key of integrating industrial economy and economic growth theory. We analyzed and compared the differences among five SEZs’ economic development and structural evolution process in the real development scenarios. After description of the basic picture of SEZs’ evolution of industrial structure through industrial development leading coefficient,Lilien value and the More value which measured the direction and speed of industrial transformation and upgrading process. Furthermore we decomposed the growth effects of industrial transformation and upgrading from the single of factor and total factor productivity point verified factors which influence industrial transformation and upgrading. The results shows us that,(1)the structural effects on economic growth which coming from industrial transformation and upgrading showed a decreasing trend,and long-term economic growth dependent more on technological advances within the industry,(2)even the evolution direction of structural effects which coming from industrial transformation and upgrading is consistent in the long term at different regions,but there is a big difference on the evolutionary path,and sustainable growth requires both the rationalization and advancement of the industrial structure,(3)industrial transformation and upgrading is rooted in the economic growth system,and they reinforce each other and dynamic accumulation,so the sustainable growth requires a mutual adaptation of the total economy and structural.

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    作者简介
    姬超:姬超,河南新乡人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向为经济增长与转型。基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(11JJD790050)。
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