本文基于文献,采用DCC-MVGARCH模型,通过检验人民币在岸市场和香港离岸市场、纽约市场的汇率联动关系,检验人民币在岸市场与离岸市场的融合程度,揭示人民币的国际化及其变化趋势。实证结果表明,人民币离岸市场与在岸市场价格存在较强的正相关关系,离岸市场与在岸市场融合程度较高,人民币国际化程度有较大提高;同时,研究发现香港无本金交割远期市场与在岸即期市场、香港离岸即期市场之间的相关程度,相较于纽约无本金交割远期市场与在岸即期市场、香港离岸即期市场之间的关系更为紧密,反映人民币的国际化程度不断提升。
<<based on the literature review,this paper use DCC-MVGARCH model to find the dynamic correlation between Hong Kong non-deliverable forward rates,onshore spot rates and Hong Kong offshore spot rates,and the dynamic correlation between New York non-deliverable forward rates,onshore spot rates and Hong Kong offshore spot rates. We find RMB onshore market and both of offshore markets have significant relationships,which show the internationalization of RMB is remarkable. The dynamic relationships of non-deliverable forward rates,onshore spot rates and Hong Kong offshore spot rate fluctuate greatly. The dynamic correlation of Hong Kong non-deliverable forward rates,onshore spot rates and Hong Kong offshore spot rates is bigger than that of New York non-deliverable forward rates,onshore spot rates and Hong Kong offshore spot rates. All these dynamic relationships reflect that globalization of RMB has been making great progress
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