在20世纪90年代以来德国主流政党整体规模不断缩水的背景下,近年来,右翼民粹主义政党德国选择党迅速壮大,在州议会选举中高歌猛进,并有望在2017年联邦大选中进入德国联邦议院,而执政党的支持率却大幅下跌,德国政治生态由此发生了重大变化。本报告从政党及政党体系的变化、危机性事件的影响、欧洲民粹主义的泛滥、欧洲一体化的倒退以及逆全球化潮流等角度分析了德国政治生态发生变化的原因,并且探讨了德国选择党所产生的社会及政治影响。
<<Since the 1990s,there is a continuous shrink in the size of Germany’s main political parties,while on the contrary,the right-wing Populist Party AfD(The Alternative for Germany)is extending gains in recent years. The AfD did increasingly well in Germany’s state elections in 2016 and became the second or third largest party in some of the Landtag. The AfD is expected to enter the Bundestag after the 2017 federal elections. Meanwhile,the support for the governing coalition parties(CDU and SPD)had dropped dramatically,which resulted in a change of the German political ecology. This report analyzes the reasons behind the changes in Germany’s political ecology from the perspectives of the change in Germany’s political parties,the impacts of the crises in Europe,the spread and rising influences of the European populism,the setbacks in the European integration and the anti-globalization trend. In addition,this report discusses the social and political influences that the AfD may bring about.
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