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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2011~2012年北京存量房市场分析

    摘要

    中国的房地产市场属于“政策市”,2011年政府针对房地产市场出台系列深入的调控政策,从2月份的“限购”再到“限贷”,年内三次加息、六次上调存款准备金率等政策,可以说2011年是政策出台最集中、最严厉、持久性最长的一年。“限购令”扩展至二、三线城市,限贷政策又进一步挤出部分有效购房需求,加速房地产市场陡转下行,投机、投资需求被挤出,改善性和首次置业需求有限度被满足,存量房市场消费者观望氛围浓重,期待房价大幅下降,购房预期降至冰点,成交极度萎缩,全年存量住宅过户不足10万套,不及2009年的一半,呈现2008年的极度低迷之势。相反,2011年租赁市场在强大租房需求的助推下,量价齐升,成交量创历年之最。 <<
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    Abstract

    China's real estate market belongs to"policy market", the government introduced a series of depth-control policies in 2011.From February, the "restriction" to the "credit limit", to raise interest rates three times during the year, deposits increased reserve ratio six times and other policies, the policy can be said that in 2011 the introduction of the most concentrated, the most severe,persistent longest of the year. "Restriction order" extended to second and third tier cities, limited credit policy further out of part of the effective housing demand,accelerate real estate market steep turn down, speculative, investment demand is out,improvement and first -time home buyers limited demand was met, the stock of a strong housing market of consumers waiting to see atmosphere and look forward to a substantial decline in housing prices,the purchase is expected to freezing point,low turnover, the whole year housing stock transfer less than 100 000 units, less than half of 2009, showing the extremely downturn trend in 2008. In contrast, the strong rental demand have helped push volume and price go, turnover record highs in 2011's rental market. <<
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    作者简介
    靳瑞欣:中原集团北京顾问中心经理。
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