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    2016年巴西社会形势综述

    摘要

    受政治经济危机的影响,2016年巴西社会形势趋于复杂化。针对罗塞夫总统弹劾案,巴西民众体现出正反两极的意见分野,社会抗议活动全年持续不断。政府更迭后,特梅尔政府在争取民意方面效果不佳,民意支持率依然维持低位,政府治理也未得到社会的广泛认可。加之腐败问题持续发酵,民众对政府表现出极度不信任的态度。与此同时,巴西就业、治安、贫困问题日益凸显,失业率不断攀升,社会治安有所恶化,“返贫”现象呈加剧趋势。为应对经济危机,特梅尔政府推出财政“休克疗法”和养老金改革计划,这两项“新政”在巴西国内颇受争议。在盟党的支持下,设置“财政上限”的宪法修正案在议会获得通过,但在民间遭到了强烈的反对,这也进一步增加了特梅尔执政的压力。在确保盟党支持的前提下,尽可能地争取民众信任,这将是特梅尔政府实现政权稳定所需要寻找的平衡。

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    Abstract

    Owing to the political and economic crisis,the social situation in Brazil in 2016 became more complicated. Firstly,the public opinion,related to the issue of Rousseff’s impeachment,was polarized,and social protests were occurred continuously throughout 2016. After the change of government,the Temer’s government didn’t recover the public confidence successfully,his popularity also stayed at a low level,and his governance hasn’t been widely recognized by the Brazilian society yet. Furthermore,coupled with the continued fermentation of the Petrobras’ Scandal,the Brazilian society showed extreme distrust the Temer’s government. Meanwhile,the social contradictions,such as unemployment,poverty and social security,tended to be increasingly prominent:the unemployment rate was rising,the social security has been deteriorated,and the poverty was also intensified. In response to the economic crisis,the Temer’s government launched a series of policy adjustments. These policy adjustments were approved in the Congress,but have encountered a strong opposition in the society,which undoubtedly increased the pressure on the actual Brazilian government. In order to recover the political stability,Temer should try to achieve a balance between the support of allied parties and the public trust.

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    作者简介
    周志伟:周志伟,法学博士,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员、巴西研究中心执行主任,主要研究领域为巴西综合研究、巴西国际战略和拉美地区一体化。
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