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    2016年畜牧业生产和市场变化及2017年展望

    摘要

    本文从畜产品生产、市场和成本效益等角度对2016年畜牧业发展进行分析,并对2017年发展形势进行了展望。2016年,畜牧业总产值同比增加,肉类、猪肉和牛奶产量同比下降,牛肉、羊肉产量略有增长,禽肉产量大幅上升。主要畜产品供求关系有紧有松,猪肉、牛肉价格高位运行,羊肉价格继续下降,生鲜奶价格触底,复苏迹象显现。2017年,畜产品消费需求增长空间有限,猪肉消费价格趋于稳定并可能有一定回落,牛肉价格因国内供给与进口共同增加而趋于下降,羊肉价格可能企稳回升,生鲜奶价格继续回升空间不大。

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the livestock production,market,and cost-benefit in 2016,and livestock cultivation,regional distribution,and the price of livestock products in 2017. In 2016,the value of livestock production increased,compared with that in 2015;the production of the meat of all kinds and milk declined;the production of beef and lamb increased slightly;the production of poultry meat increased largely,and the pork production declined. The production areas were further concentrated. The demand for pork and beef was more than the supply,and the price was high and stable. The supply of lamb and milk was more than the demand,and the price of lamb was lower than that in the same duration in 2015,but the price of fresh milk seemingly hit the bottom and showed the sign of reboundness. The economy of scale was more obvious in the hog production but still little in the dairy industry.

    In recent years,the livestock cost has increased mainly because of the increase in the input of the feed and forage. The labor could be reduced by expanding the farm scales and adopting the labor intensive techniques. In 2017,it is expected that,the pork price would fall back,but the production would be still profitable;the beef imports would increase,and the price would decline;the lamb price might be higher than that in 2016,affected by the reduction in the lamb supply,and the milk industry would be still in the severe winter.

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    作者简介
    李婷婷:李婷婷,理学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要从事城乡发展转型、土地利用研究。
    刘长全:刘长全,经济学博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,主要从事农村产业经济、奶业经济、区域经济研究。
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