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    2016年经济作物生产和市场状况及2017年走势分析

    摘要

    2016年,经济作物的生产处于下行阶段,棉花、油菜籽和糖料进一步减产,播种面积的减少是三大经济作物减产的主要原因;三大经济作物的区位优势进一步提升。三大经济作物的市场价格较2015年有所回升,种植成本均有不同程度上涨,其中人工成本增加是种植成本上涨的最主要原因。预测2017年三大经济作物总产量下行压力较大,种植集中度会进一步提高;三大经济作物的国内消费量会持续增加,进口依存度依然较高;棉花和油料作物市场价格有下行压力,食糖价格仍会在高位运行;各项成本的增加带来的农业利润率的下滑是未来经济作物发展需要考虑的关键问题。

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    Abstract

    The year 2016 has witnessed a descending stage in the production of cash crops. The yield of cotton,oil rapeseeds and sugar crops further declined,mainly because of the reduction in the planting areas. The regional concentration of the cash crops was further promoted. The market price of the cash crops rose again,compared with that in 2015. The production costs increased,mainly because of by the rise in the labor cost. In 2017,it is anticipated that,the production of the cash crops would decline,with the planting areas further concentrated;the consumption of the cash crops would continuously increase,with a high degree of dependence on the import;the price of cotton and oil crops would decline,but the price of sugar crops would be still high. In total,the key issue needed to be considered in the future is the reduction in the profit margins,caused by the increase in the various costs.

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    作者简介
    张瑞娟:张瑞娟,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,研究方向为农村发展理论与政策。
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