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    2016年粮食生产和市场状况及2017年展望

    摘要

    2016年,由于库存大、产量仍然较高等因素,中国粮食供求形势总体宽松。受种植结构调整和自然灾害影响,谷物产量稍降,豆类、薯类产量增加;受结构性需求、国内外价差等因素影响,稻谷、小麦、大豆进口继续增加,玉米及其替代品进口大幅下降;主要受供求形势、玉米临时收储政策调整等因素影响,稻谷、小麦、玉米生产者价格下跌,其中,玉米价格下跌幅度最大。综合考虑国际粮食市场形势、国内政策调整等因素,预计2017年稻谷、玉米产量会下降,小麦、薯类、豆类产量会增加;稻谷价格会有一定幅度下跌,小麦价格会比较平稳,玉米、大豆价格波动幅度相对较大;大米、小麦、玉米、大豆进口压力都会减轻。

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    Abstract

    In 2016,the grain supply was a little bit more than the demand,mainly because of the large stock and high yields. Affected by the planting structure adjustment and natural disasters,the grain yield slightly went down,while the production of soybean,beans,and potatoes went up. Because of the reasons,such as the demand caused by the structure adjustment and the difference in the domestic and international markets,the import of rice,wheat and soybean continuously increased,while corn and its substitutes declined sharply. Affected by the relationship of supply and demand and the adjustment in the corn storage policy,the producer price of rice,wheat and corn declined,of which the corn price fell the most. Comprehensively considering the international market and domestic policy adjustment,we have the follow expectations for the next year. The yields of rice and corn would decline,while the yields of wheat,soybean,beans,and potatoes would increase. The rice price would fall. The wheat price would remain stable. The price of corn and soybean would fluctuate. The pressure on the import of rice,wheat,corn,and soybean would decline.

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    作者简介
    罗万纯:罗万纯,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所副研究员,研究方向为农村发展理论与政策。
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