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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    巴西联邦共和国

    摘要

    2016年,巴西政局发生重大变化,罗塞夫因为违反《财政责任法》而遭到议会弹劾,执政约达13年的劳工党黯然下台,巴西政治生态趋于复杂。经济依然不景气,2016年前两个季度巴西经济分别萎缩5。4%和3。8%。特梅尔新政府采取一系列振兴经济的措施,政策效果有待时间检验。社会方面,经济衰退使巴西就业情况在最近两年出现持续恶化局面,社会矛盾呈现出加剧趋势。外交方面,特梅尔在执政初期的外交重心势必放在获得国际社会对其执政合法性的认同上,巴西新政府在对外政策方面也释放出了调整信号。

    Noanode2016,háumamudançadramáticanapolíticabrasileira。DilmaRousseffsofreuimpeachment,decisãodoparlamento,devidoàsuaviolaçãocontraaLeidaResponsabilidadeFiscalFederal。OPartidodosTrabalhadores(PT)desceudepoisdasuagovernaçãoporcercade13anos,oquetrarásemdúvidacomplicaçõesaoambientepolíticodopaís。Aeconomiaaindaestáestagnada,cujocrescimentosereduziu5,4%e3,8%nosprimeirosdoistrimestresde2016,respetivamente。OgovernodeTemeranunciouumasériedemedidasparaincentivaraeconomia,masosseusefeitosmantêmaseravaliados。Noâmbitosocial,odesempregofoideterioradoconstantementenosúltimosdoisanosporcausadarecessãoeconómica,enestecontexto,intensificaram-seascontradiçõeseconflitossociais。Diplomaticamente,noiníciodagovernançadogovernodeTemer,oseufocodiplomático,indubitavelmente,pesanaaquisiçãodoreconhecimentodalegitimidadedogoverno,eparaalémdisso,hámaissinaisdeajustamentoemtornodaspolíticasexternasdogovernobrasileiro。

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    Abstract

    In 2016,Brazil experienced dramatic political change. Dilma Rousseff was impeached by Brazilian National Congress,owing to her violation of the Federal Fiscal Responsibility Law. The downfall of the Worker’s party,after nearly 13 years of ruling,will undoubtedly bring great influences on Brazil’s political situation in near future. Brazil’s economy was still stagnant,which decreased by 5.4% and 3.8% respectively in the second and third quarter. The Temer government announced a series of anti-crisis policies,but their effects remained to be tested. In the social area,unemployment rate deteriorated largely in the last two years because of the economic recession,and social conflicts also intensified in the context of political and economic turbulence. After the impeachment,improving the international recognition of the ruling legitimacy has become one principal objective of the Temer government’s diplomacy. For this reason,some adjustments of Brazil’s foreign policies have been made.

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    作者简介
    周志伟:周志伟,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员,巴西研究中心执行主任。
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