科技创新是提升综合国力的关键所在,本文以国家创新能力综合测度指标体系为基础,从创新环境、创新资源、创新成果和创新效益四个领域考察我国创新能力的发展情况。首先,利用主成分分析法得到1991~2014年国家创新能力各领域得分和综合得分,并利用曲线回归方法求得2020年、2030年和2050年国家创新能力的预测值,以动态反映我国创新能力的发展情况和演化趋势。其次,利用系统聚类、横向分析和纵向分析,总结出我国创新能力发展的阶段特征:1991~1999年为起步阶段、2000~2007年为加速阶段、2008~2014年为稳步发展阶段。最后,设计中国科技创新追赶指数,以客观反映我国创新能力与世界创新强国美国的差距。结果表明,制约我国创新能力提升的主要因素是创新资源的使用效率和创新成果的经济转化率过低。
<<Is the key to enhance the comprehensive national strength, science and technology innovation in this paper, on the basis of the national innovation ability index system of comprehensive measure, from the innovation environment, innovation resources, innovation and efficiency in four areas to investigate the development of innovative ability.First of all, using principal component analysis (pca) for 1991 ~ 2014 national innovation ability scores and comprehensive scores in every field, and by using curvilinear regression method is obtained in 2020, 2030 and 2050 national innovation ability of forecast, in dynamic situation and the evolution tendency of the development of innovation ability in our country.Secondly, the use of system clustering, the transverse and longitudinal analysis, summed up the stage characteristics of the innovation ability development of our country: from 1991 to 1999 as the start stage, from 2000 to 2007 as accelerating stage, from 2008 to 2014 for the steady development stage.Finally, China science and technology innovation pursued index design, in order to objectively reflect China's innovation ability and the innovation power gap in the United States.Results show that the main factor of restricting our innovation ability promotion is the use efficiency of innovation resources and innovation of economic conversion rate is too low.
<<Keywords: | Scientific and Technological InnovationPrincipal Component Analysis (pca)National Innovation AbilityScience and Technology Innovation Pursued Index |