2016年,四川经济发展继续运行在近两年形成的转折性变化轨道中。一方面,在保持战略定力,深入实施“三大发展战略”的前提下,针对稳增长、调结构、促改革的各种政策措施频繁推出,尤其是实施“项目年”、推进供给侧结构性改革、启动全面创新改革等重大举措,有力地促进了稳增长和调结构的同步推进,使消费继续保持较快增长,投资和出口回落幅度明显收窄,服务业比重进一步提高,去产能、去库存初见成效,军民融合顺利起航,地区生产总值实现了高于全国近一个百分点的增长速度,短期触底迹象明显。同时,也要看到,传统产业增长乏力、新兴产业增速减缓、投资增长速度继续下滑、各类主体债务高企等压力,稳增长和调结构仍然面临新的挑战。展望2017年,消费可能保持8%左右的增长,拉动经济增长4个百分点以上;投资可能在10%左右的范围内波动,对经济增长贡献3个以上百分点;“出口”逆差缺口进一步收窄,为保持2016年的增长水平创造了条件。产业结构、城乡结构、地区结构、所有制结构、投资结构、技术结构、分配结构继续朝着有所优化的方向变化。如果不出现大的环境和政策变化,财政收入、城乡居民收入、物价、就业有望基本保持稳定。
<<In 2016,the economic development of Sichuan Province continues to remain in the transitional changing track that was formed in recent two years. On one side,in the context of maintaining a strategic concentration and thoroughly implementation of the three major development strategies,various policies and measures were frequently launched for steady growth,structural adjustment,and reform promotion,especially the implementation of the “project year”,promotion of the supply-side structural reform,and the start of comprehensive innovation,these policies effectively promote both the steady growth and the adjustment of the structure,keep consumption to maintain a rapid growth,significantly narrowed the decline of investment and export,increase the proportion of service industry,and overcapacity and reducing inventory have achieved initial success,civil-military integration also has an nice start,the growth rate of GDP was nearly one percent higher than the national level. In the meanwhile,we have to realize the facts that the economy has obviously reached its bottom in short-term. On the other hand,we also have to recognize something bad,like weak growth of traditional industries,slowdown in the growth of emerging industries,continuously decline of investment growth rate,high debt pressure of market subject,all these show that steady growth and structural adjustment are still facing new challenges. We expect consumption growth rate may maintain about 8% in 2017,this can stimulate economic growth rate of more than 4 percent;investment growth rate may fluctuate around 10%,which contributes over 3% for GDP growth,deficit of export will narrow further,and this will create conditions for maintaining growth level of the year 2017. Structures for Industries,urban and rural areas,regions,ownership system,investment,technology,and distribution continue to change in the direction of optimization. Fiscal revenue,income of urban and rural residents,price of commodity,employment rate is expected to remain stable if there is no huge environmental and policy changes.
<<Keywords: | Economic SituationSichuanSteady Growth |