IPCC第五次评估报告显示,气候变化已经对人类和自然系统产生了广泛的影响。农业事关国计民生,是对气候变化最为敏感的产业部门之一。农户是农业生产的基层主体,开展农户水平的气候变化感知研究对实现农业可持续发展至关重要。崇明岛是上海市重要的粮食和蔬菜供应地,其三面临江一面临海的小岛屿布局使农业更易受到气候变化的影响。在总结国内外农户气候变化感知研究的基础上,对崇明岛气候变化状况和农户气候变化感知状况进行文献和问卷调研;采用二元逻辑回归模型(BinaryLogisticRegression,BLR)识别影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素,包括政策需求、家庭距镇中心距离、性别、家庭农业劳动力比重、亩产量和人均收入等,在此基础上提出相应的政策建议。
<<The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)shows that climate change already has widespread impact on human and natural system. Agriculture is of vital importance to the nation’s economy and the people’s livelihood,which is one of the most sensitive production sectors to climate change. Farmer is the basic unit of agricultural production and climate change adaption at farmer-level is crucial to sustainable development of agriculture. Chongming Island,the most important supplier of grain and vegetable in Shanghai,is surrounded by Yangzi River and East China Sea,which makes it very vulnerable to the impact of climate change. On the basis of the existing studies on farmers’ perception of climate change,this study has conducted literature research and questionnaire survey about climate change conditions and farmers’ perception of climate change at Chongming Island. This research adopts the binary logistic regression(BLR)model to identify the key factors that affect farmers’ perception of climate change,including the policy requirements,distance away from the center of town,gender,the proportion of farm labor in household,yields per unit of cropland and income per capita. Based on the above results,several suggestions are proposed accordingly.
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