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    关于经济收敛的一个新寓言——引入闲暇后增长性质的改变

    摘要

    新古典与内生增长理论的主要争论之一在于经济是否会收敛,后者通过将技术进步率内生进而证明经济可以持续增长。本文认为,随着社会经济的发展,经济增长的性质不但和生产及技术有关,而且会越来越受到闲暇选择的影响。然而,几乎所有的经济学文献都只考虑闲暇对产出的替代效应,而社会学和心理学文献却主要关注闲暇的互补效应。为此,本文综合学科间的观点和当今社会发展的趋势,基于闲暇的内生选择,将闲暇的互补效应和闲暇的替代效应同时引入卢卡斯模型和(带人力资本的)内生技术进步模型,计算后发现,引入闲暇选择及其互补效应后,经济增长最终会收敛:内生增长将“回归”为新古典增长。本文认为主要原因在于当经济进入高收入阶段向稳态逼近时,闲暇的互补效应和正边际效应引致个体选择更多的闲暇,这会使闲暇的替代效应最终抵消并超过闲暇的互补效应,导致经济收敛。但和新古典的收敛不同的是:由于效用函数和生产函数中包含了体现“自由与快乐”的闲暇变量,因此这种收敛是一种“个体出于效用最大化目的、自动放弃持续增长”的主动选择,而新古典收敛是源于要素积累报酬递减的被动选择。

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    Abstract

    The chief dispute between Neoclassic economics and endogenous growth theory,which holds the rate of technical progress is endogenous and confirms that the economy can keep growing,focuses on whether the economy will converge. This paper suggests that,as the economy develops,the attribute of the economic growth is not only associated with production and technology,but also is more and more affected by leisure activity choices. However,most of all the economical literature just pay attention to the substitute effect of leisure,while the social and psychological literature mostly focus on the complementary effect of leisure. So this paper combines the wisdom of different subjects and puts the four types of the complementary effect of leisure and the substitute effect of leisure into the Lucas model and endogenous technological progress model with labor capital accumulation sequentially based on the endogenous choice of leisure. The computation indicates that with the involvement of leisure choice and its complementary effect,economic growth will finally converge—endogenous growth will regress to Neoclassic growth. By analysis,this paper shows that the chief reason lies in that as the economy comes into the high-income stage and approaches the stable state,the substitute effect of leisure and its positive marginal utility will lead the individuals to choose more leisure and find an optimal trade-off between work and leisure,and in this way,it makes the economy converge. Because the utility function contains the leisure variance which represents freedom and happiness,this kind of convergence is the individuals’ initiative choice to achieve maximum personal utility and give up continuous growth. Whereas the Neoclassic convergence is the negative choice cause by diminishing returns from factor accumulation.

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