长期以来,人口学家担心的是高生育率问题,并认为社会经济的发展将使人类的生育率徘徊于2。1的更替水平上下。然而,不少国家或地区在近些年出现了值得警醒的最低生育率现象。本文将中国的最低生育率置于全球、亚洲视野中,并通过比较各省区的总和生育率,对其现状、趋势、特点、原因及后果进行了初步分析。结果表明,中国低生育率的获得不是孤立与偶然的,而是受到全球及周边国家和地区生育转变的影响,是其有机组成部分;中国生育水平的下降过程、模式和特点与全球及周边地区十分类似,并正在步西方发达国家的后尘:不仅一些大城市或发达地区在长达十余年的时间内维持着最低生育率,一些经济欠发达地区也遭遇了该现象。因此,在限制性生育政策推行30多年后,政府部门必须直面当今中国部分地区最低生育率的现实和大范围蔓延的潜在危险,及时调整生育政策,防患于未然,以避免难以逆转的、长期的、不利的人口和社会经济后果。
<<Demographers have long been concerned with high fertility issues and believed that the total fertility rate will eventually stabilize at the replacement level,2.1 children per woman. Nevertheless,fertility has kept falling in most European and East Asian countries or regions,generating the new demographic phenomenon of lowest-low fertility rate,which would in turn have profound impact on families and the society as a whole. By situating the low fertility rate in China in the global and regional context and comparing fertility rate across different provinces in China,this paper examines the current situation,trends,features,causes and consequences of China’s extremely low fertility rate. It was found that the decrease of fertility rate in China is not an exception of the global trend during the same period and that the same extremely low fertility rate has ever appeared not only in China but also in developed as well as in some underdeveloped regions. Such findings call for more attentions from academic demographers and policy makers.
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