5~6月份外贸出口同比增长40%以上,增速较前期大幅度提高,并导致外贸顺差急剧扩大。我们认为,外贸出口增速大幅度提高主要受外部需求加快恢复的影响,出口价格回升也对出口额增速的提高产生正面影响;未来2~3个月内中国出口将继续保持较快增长,第四季度之后出口增幅将明显回落;同时,由于进口增幅将持续回落,第二、第三季度外贸顺差将明显扩大,净出口对GDP的正向拉动作用将会逐步显现。
<<>The exports of China rose more than 40% year on year in the last tow months and significantly increased,compared with that of the former months,leading to rapid expansion of the foreign trade surplus.In our opinions,the rapid recovery of major economics and the rebound in prices had a positive impact on the steep rise of exports.The exports of China will still continue to keep relatively fast growth in the next 2-3 months.And then the growth rate of exports will sharply go down in the fourth quarter of 2010.Meanwhile,because imports will continue to fall,the foreign trade surplus will have a significant expansion in the second and third quarters.A positive impact of net exports on the GDP will gradually become apparent.
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