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跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）正处于12个成员国的国内审批阶段，美国的主导地位和经济规模决定了美国国会的审批事关TPP的前途命运。美国总统和国会议员的竞选拖延了TPP的审批，新总统的否定态度、部分国会议员和利益集团的反对声音给TPP的前景披上了“朦胧的面纱”。当TPP在成员国内的立法审批遇上美国大选，带来的挑战和不利影响不可避免。但我们的分析认为，纵使面临众多的不确定性，协定最后能够正式生效的可能性仍然很大。如果奥巴马政府能够在“跛脚鸭国会”时期完成审批，协定会较快生效；而如果拖延到美国新总统上任之后进行审批，则会陷入迷茫的进一步争论。
<<| 关键词： | 美国大选跨太平洋伙伴关系协定国内审批 |
The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is in the process of domestic approval by 12 member countries. The dominant position and huge economic scale of the US determines that the US’s domestic approval is key for the fate of TPP. The US president and congress election delays the approval of TPP. Meanwhile，negative attitudes from the new president candidates，and oppositions from some congressmen and interest groups make the future of TPP unclear. Our analysis reveal that the TPP will be approved at last even though faced with many challenges. If the Obama government could finish the ratification of the TPP in Lame Duck Session Congress，the agreement will take effect soon. If the approval has been postponed to the new president period，the TPP will fall into a further debate.
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