在过去十余年,全球债务不断攀升。新兴市场经济体债务上升显著快于发达经济体。分部门来看,全球政府部门债务上升最快。在发达经济体中,日本债务负担最高,而法国债务上升最快;在新兴经济体中,中国既是债务负担最高的,也是债务上升最快的。债务水平过高将造成三种主要风险:一是经济增速放缓;二是系统性金融风险上升;三是在酿成危机之后,去杠杆方式不当可能显著影响一国经济增长前景。降低全球债务的方式包括降低债务本身与提振经济增长。紧缩式的去杠杆方式通常会延长去杠杆进程并对经济增长造成显著负面冲击。因此在去杠杆进程中,宽松的财政货币政策不可或缺。
<<The global debt kept soaring in the past decade. The Rise of emerging economies’ debt was much faster than the rise of advanced economies’ debt. Governments’ debt rose quickly than households’ and corporations’ debt. Among the advanced economies,Japan’s debt was the highest,however France’s debt rose fastest. Among the emerging economies,China’s debt was the highest and China’s debt also rose fastest. High debt would cause the following three major risks:the slowing down of economic growth,the rise of systemic financial risk,and the impact of deleveraging to economic growth after the burst of crisis. The strategy of global debt deleveraging includes reducing debt directly and accelerating economic growth. The austerity way of deleveraging would lengthen the deleveraging process and impact economic growth severely. Therefore,a relative loose fiscal and monetary policy mix would be indispensable during the deleveraging process.
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