2016年国民经济增长率下降和产业结构变动将会降低城乡低技能劳动力工资增长率,减少低技能劳动力的就业机会,而低技能劳动力主要集中于城镇中低收入者和农村中高收入者。因此,经济增长率下降会改变城镇居民收入差距不断缩小的趋势,引起城镇居民收入差距扩大。与此同时,经济增长率下降将会使农村收入差距延续2015年缩小趋势,进一步缩小。经济增长率下降对农村居民人均收入增长率的负面冲击要大于城镇居民,会引起城乡收入差距缩小的趋势停滞,甚至转为扩大。综上所述,2016年城镇、农村和城乡居民收入差距将朝着不同方向变化,全国居民收入差距不断缩小的趋势将会停滞,甚至可能有所扩大。
<<During 2016,the output growth rate of secondary industry keeps decreasing,which leads to the decrease of national economic growth rate and the adjustment of industrial structural change. As a result,both residents’ income and employment affect the structure of income inequality. First of all,the decreasing rate of economic growth will downgrade the wage increase rate among low skilled labor force and reduce related employment opportunities. And both urban residents with lower middle income and rural residents with upper middle income are concentrated in low-skilled labor market. Therefore,the decrease of economic growth rate will widen the income inequality among urban residents. At the same time,this trend will continue the trend of narrowing rural residents’ income inequality since 2015. However,the decreasing economic growth rate may have more negative impact on rural residents’ average income growth rate than urban residents’ income growth rate,which may cause the widening gap of income inequality between urban and rural residents. Therefore,for 2016,the income inequality between urban and rural residents and among urban residents will follow different path,which will cause a widening gap of the income inequality in China.
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