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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2016年中国税收形势分析预测及2017年初步展望

    摘要

    2016年税收收入,第一季度累计增速为6。5%,其增长速度低于经济增速0。2个百分点,第二季度累计增速为6。8%,有回升,与经济增速基本同步,仅高于经济增速0。1个百分点,第三季度累计增速回落较大,为5。0%,低于经济增速1。7个百分点。主要税种收入增速较上年有升有降,沿海重点税源大省税收收入增速增幅回升,多数省份税收收入增速较上年增速回落,直接影响到全国税收收入增速呈现回落态势。2016年假如中国宏观经济形势处于低速运行态势,税收收入也将进入一个低速增长时期,并继续低于经济增速。

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    Abstract

    According to the tax revenue in 2016,the cumulative growth rate was 6.5 percent in the first quarter,its growth rate was 0.2 percent lower compare to the economic growth rate;the cumulative growth rate had recovered in the second quarter which was 6.8%,its function situation was similar to the economic growth but 0.1 percent higher. The cumulative growth rate in the third quarter had been fallen into 5.0 percent which was 1.7 percent lower than the economic growth rate. The major tax revenue growth showed its instability when comparing with the statistics from previous year,the tax revenue growth rate had only been increased in the key coastal provinces,but had been decreased from most of the other provinces which created direct impact on the national tax revenue growth and presented a decline trend. If the macroeconomic situation in China is keeping operate in a low speed in 2016,the tax revenue will enter a period of slow growth and its growth rate will continue to be lower than the economic growth.

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    作者简介
    付广军:付广军,国家税务总局税收研究所研究员。
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