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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    我国经济“L”型探底企稳阶段投资形势分析

    摘要

    近年来,全球经济呈现经济增长短期停滞、通货紧缩压力增大、政策刺激的边际效应弱化、实体经济不振、经济复苏的不确定性加大等典型特征。我国经济同样面临着“四降一升”的问题。在经济复苏的道路上,我国经济与世界经济增长具有很强的逻辑一致性。长期来看,解决危机最核心的手段是结构改革,寻求新的增长动力。而在短期内,经济增长的动力在于投资,稳投资是稳增长的重要抓手。预计2017年全社会固定资产投资名义增长9%左右,增速比2016年稍有回落。当前,稳投资需要重点突破:第一,从投资结构上,平衡基建投资、房地产投资和制造业投资,增强投资的可持续性;第二,在保持国有投资适度增长的同时,从制度设计上激发民间投资的动力,避免新一轮“国进民退”;第三,警惕重回粗放的投资增长模式,提高投资效率,优化投资结构,扩大有效需求。

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    关键词: 中国经济

    Abstract

    In recent years,the global economy has shown a short-term stagnation in economic growth,the deflation pressure has been increased,the marginal effect of policy stimulus has been weakened,the substantial economy has run sluggish,and moreover,the uncertainty of economic recovery has increased the typical characteristics. The economy in China is also facing the problem of “four drops and one raise”. On the way to economic recovery,China’s economy has a strong logical consistency with the world economic growth. In the long term,using the structural reform to solve the crisis is the key,and to seek new growth opportunity at the same time. Within the short term,the motive force of economic growth is to encourage investment,only steady investment helps the steady growth. It has been estimated that the total investment in whole society’s fixed assets investment in 2018 will be increased about 9 percent,which shows a slight increase compare to 2016. At present,steady investment needs to focus on breakthroughs:firstly,to balance the infrastructure investment,real estate investment and manufacturing investment within the investment structure and to enhance the sustainability of investment;secondly,while maintaining the proper growth of the state-owned investment,to encourage the motive force of private investment through system installation in order to stimulate private investment which also help to avoid a new round of “guojinmingtui”(the state advances,the private sector retreats);thirdly,to alert the extensive mode of investment growth,to improve investment efficiency,to optimize the investment structure and to expand the effect demand.

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