伴随中国经济增速下行和结构转型,金融转型和创新有加速趋势,经济和金融转型隐含的系统性风险也有显露态势。分析中国2016年前三季度货币流动性、贷款、社会融资、利率、汇率等金融指标的指数、结构配置、系统风险等因素,并与近年特别是2015年同期指数的对比,得出现阶段稳增长必须保持货币信贷政策适度宽松的结论。对2017年中国经济和金融运行的宏观政策取向提出建议,首先,要综合应用货币政策工具及创新,保持银行体系流动性适度宽松,促进金融支持实体经济的社会融资存量稳定增长;其次,稳定政策利率调整和人民币汇率贬值预期,降低社会融资成本,防止人民币汇率过调;再次,发挥窗口指导和广义信贷政策的结构调整引导功能,引导信贷结构改善和金融配置,支持国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节;最后,要加强监测和管理经济和金融转型隐含的系统性风险。
<<China’s economic growth is descending and its structural transformation,financial transformation and innovation is developing in an accelerating trend. The risk of transformation in economic and financial systemic has revealed. By comparing the analysis of China’s first three quarters’ ofthe index of financial indicators,structure configuration and system risk factors especially in the same period of 2015 and 2016 index,it is concluded that the present stage must be kept steady growth of monetary credit policy moderate. China’s economic and financial operation in 2017 suggestions that monetary policy tools adopt comprehensive,innovation and maintain liquidity in the banking system to promote financial support of the real economy social financing stock steady growth. To stabilize the policy interest rate adjustment and the RMB exchange rate depreciation expectations;to reduce social cost of financing,prevent the RMB exchange rate adjustment. Generalized structural adjustment credit policy is essential to guide to improve the credit structure and the financial allocation in order to support the national economy. Most of all,it is important to strengthening the monitoring and management implication of the transformation in economic and financial systemic risk.
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