当前我国经济形势分析中的一个焦点问题是民间投资增速严重下滑。本文首先从三个方面考察了民间投资增速严重下滑的状况:民间投资增速本身、民间投资增速与全国投资增速的比较、民间投资占全国投资的比重。民间投资增速严重下滑的原因是多方面的。本文指出,最关键的原因是投资的赢利预期不振、赢利前景迷茫。本文分析了企业赢利预期的四种类型:古典预期、外推性预期、适应性预期和理性预期。最后,本文阐明,营造有利于形成企业赢利预期的良好宏观经济运行环境,是扭转民间投资增速严重下滑的充分必要条件。
<<One of the focal points in analyzing China’s economic situation at current stage is the serious decline in the growth of private investment. This article investigates such situation in the following three aspects:private investment growth rate;contrasts between private investment growth rate and the national investment growth rate;the proportion that private investment is accounted for due to the total investment nationally. There are various reasons for causing the serious decline in private investment growth. This paper points out that the most important factor is the profitable investment does not meet the expected target and the enterprises lost hope on making more profit. This paper analyses four types of enterprise profit expectations:classical expectation;extrapolation expectation;adaptive expectation and rational expectation. Finally,the paper suggests and indicates that to create a favorable macroeconomic environment by aiming to benefit the profit expectation of the enterprises is the most sufficient and necessary condition in order to encourage the growth of private investment.
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