2015年,澳门经济走过极不平凡的一年。受博彩业连续19个月下跌影响,澳门经济已进入深度调整期,对各行业产生了一定的影响。以旅游博彩业为龙头的澳门经济2015年首三季度本地生产总值(GDP)分别按年实质收缩24。5%、26。4%和24。2%。是次调整导致了特区成立以来规模最大、时间最长的本地生产总值(GDP)负增长期。
随着美元回归常态化,利率逐渐上升,综合各方面的分析,预计2016年全球经济环境仍然低迷及不明朗,2016年澳门经济亦较难在短期内有明显改善,预计在较低基数的基础上,2016年全年有望趋于平稳。在一般境况下,预测2016年全年经济增长为-2%~2%,但澳门经济受外围经济尤其是内地经济的影响较大,预测的准确性亦可能因此受到影响。
<<The state of the economy of Macao has been extraordinary in 2015. Due to the 19-month of consecutive fall in gaming revenue,the economy of Macao has entered into a period of deep adjustment,affecting all sectors. Macao’s Gross Domestic Product for the first three quarters of 2015 has contracted 24.5%,26.4% and 24.2% in real terms respectively. Macao has entered into a longest period of negative economic growth with the largest scale since the establishment of the Special Administrative Region.
Following the normalisation of the US Dollar through increase in interest rates,it is predicted that the global economy will remain uncertain in 2016. Similarly,it is difficult to foresee any significant improvement for Macao’s economy. It is expected that the Macao economy will stabilise on a lower base. In normal circumstances,the GDP growth range is expected to be between -2% and 2%. However,the heavy influence of the Mainland economy to Macao’s economy would affect the accuracy of the forecast.
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