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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2015~2016年度澳大利亚发展形势综述:总理更迭 政策稳定

    摘要

    2015年澳再次发生在大选前执政党领袖惨遭党内“逼宫”,政府总理更迭的戏剧性一幕。阿博特总理的下台既是其涉及医疗、教育和公共福利等一系列政策直接引发民怨的结果,更是澳在全球性经济不景气和国内产业结构畸形的背景下,增长乏力,失业攀升,贫富加剧,导致党内对其执政能力丧失信心,冀“换将”以挽回民心,挽救执政党地位的结果。澳政府首脑更迭具有强烈的内生性,因而对执政党的国内政策和2016年的大选竞选纲领将会产生一定的影响,而对其整体外交政策影响有限。作为澳第一大贸易伙伴和亚太地区最具活力的经济体,中国对澳经济影响力和中澳经济紧密度仍将稳中有升,这是中澳全面战略合作伙伴关系的基础,中澳关系不会因政府领导人更迭而轻易改变。

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    Abstract

    Australia witnessed once again in 2015 an intra-party political “coup” in which Prime Minister Tony Abbot was ousted by his own party. Obviously,the “couple” is the aftermath of a combination of factors,among which Abbot’s reforms of Australian welfare system,including medicare and education,which had generated nationwide dissatisfaction,were on the top list. Much worse,this situation had been markedly exacerbated by such unpleasant data as the rapid decline of Australian economy,the rise of unemployment rate and the widening gap between the rich and the poor,which might be attributable to global economic downturn in general and Australian imbalanced economic structure in particular. As a result,the National Party lost confidence in Abbot and wished to save the forthcoming general election by replacing him with a more popular politician. The motivations behind this “couple” mainly arising from domestic politics mean significant impacts on Australian internal affairs and its general election,rather than its foreign policy. As its largest trading partner and the most energetic economy in the world,China is enjoying increasing influence on Australia and their economic interdependence is ever-growing,which constitute the groundwork for their strategic partnership and ensure a stable Sino-Australian relationship void of radical changes resulting from the replacement of governments in Australia.

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    作者简介
    〔澳〕于镭:于镭,中山大学大洋洲研究中心研究员,南澳大学语言与国际研究学院博士、澳大利亚国际关系研究会会员,主要研究领域为东亚安全、中美澳三边关系。
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