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    “十三五”:我国能源低碳转型的关键期

    摘要

    本文在“十二五”时期经济社会发展的基础上,首先分析了“十三五”时期我国能源发展的四个背景:我国经济发展进入新常态;2020年要实现全面小康的国家目标,“十三五”需补短板;实现并争取超额实现2020年国家低碳发展目标;《巴黎协定》开启了全球绿色、低碳发展的新阶段,“十三五”时期能源的发展必须明确指引低碳转型。其次重点阐述了“十三五”时期能源低碳转型的发展路径:节能、提效,改变粗放的发展方式;减煤,煤炭年消耗在“十三五”时期见顶;大力发展非化石能源;稳油增气;发展智慧能源互联网;新型城镇化应走低碳道路。最后给出了“十三五”时期我国能源低碳转型应达到的四个标志性目标。

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    Abstract

    Based on the development during the “12th Five-year” period,four backgrounds for the energy development during the “13th Five-year” period of China have been analyzed. Firstly,China’s economy and energy development had entered the New Normal. Secondly,China planned to achieve the national target to build “moderately well-off society” by 2020,and this needs to shore up our weak spots. Thirdly,China should realize the national low-carbon target on the carbon emission reduction per GDP by 2020. Finally,the Paris Agreement started a new stage of green and global low-carbon development. Hereby,the roadmap of the energy low-carbon transformation during the “13th Five-year” period had been deeply elaborated. It needs to change the extensive mode of development,save energy and improve energy efficiency;reduce the coal consumption and make the annual consumption of coal reach its peak during “13th Five-year” period;fully develop non-fossil energy;stabilize oil development and increase natural gas utilization;develop the smart energy network;urbanize in a low-carbon way. Finally,the four characteristics targets have been listed for the energy low-carbon transition during the “13th Five-year” period.

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    作者简介
    杜祥琬:杜祥琬,中国工程院院士,国家能源咨询专家委员会副主任,国家气候变化专家委员会主任,中国工程物理研究院研究员、博士生导师,俄罗斯联邦工程院外籍院士,主要从事应用物理与强激光技术和能源研究。
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