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谢伏瞻
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    2015年加拿大经济概况与外贸形势

    摘要

    2015年加拿大经济增长幅度比上一年有所下降,投资不足带来固定资本总值下降、商品和服务出口下降或不稳定是主要原因。该年加拿大经济主要呈现以下特点:能源价格指数走低,拉小居民消费价格指数上升幅度;产油气省份失业率随油气价格的下跌而上升;制造业销售状况不稳定;美元对加元升值使得政府官方储备中美元储备增加;出口下降,贸易逆差扩大;人口增长速度放缓,人口老龄化加剧。从经济发展的新趋势看,首先,加拿大对外贸易地区结构呈现多元化,表现为美国在加拿大对外贸易中的比重进一步下降,而中国、墨西哥贸易比重在上升;其次,美国能源自给率的提高和国际能源价格的下跌,为中加两国经贸合作带来契机,为此,可以预测中加两国经贸关系将会有较大发展,能源合作可能成为中加双边贸易与投资的重要内容。

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    Abstract

    The Canadian economy’s growth rate declined over the previous year. The reasons include less investment in fixed capital,and a decline in exports of goods and services. The Canadian economy mainly presents the following characteristics:lower energy prices pull low consumer price index rose;the unemployment rate rises with the decline of oil and gas price in producing provinces;manufacturing sales is not stable;both the amount of exports and imports declined,and the deficit expanded;population growth rate slowed,but the phenomenon of an aging population continues. However,the total amount of Canadian government official reserves increases for appreciation of the dollar. From the new trend of economic development,the first is Canada’s foreign trade area structure diversification trend,the performance of the United States in Canada’s foreign trade in the proportion of further decline,while the proportion of trade in China and Mexico is rising. Second,the U.S. energy self-sufficiency rate and the decline in international energy prices will give an opportunity for increase cooperation of economic and trade between Canada and China. To this end,it is possible to predict the economic and trade relations between the two countries will have a larger development. Energy cooperation may become an important part of bilateral trade and investment.

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    作者简介
    林珏:林珏,博士,教授,上海财经大学国际工商管理学院博士生导师,世界经济研究中心主任,研究方向为世界经济、国际贸易、加拿大经济。
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