This paper constructs a framework of risk rating system，in consideration of factors including macroeconomic，industry，company operations and financial ratios. Further，using the data of listed real estate companies，and based on non-parametric test，correlation analysis，FA and logistic regression，this paper screens indicators that may predict the default. Study shows that scale and state-owned holding index are remarkable in indicating the default，and current ratio is more remarkable than quick ratio. Also，higher inventory turnover does not indicate future management problem，and liability to asset rate should be combined with profit indicates when predict default. The final PD model should include profit factor，financing structure factor，debt repayment factor and liquidity factor.