This paper concludes，on the basis of prediction in the impact of senior middle school-age population on the demand and supply of education resources and the educational needs in the coming few years，that the resources of ordinary senior middle school can satisfy the demands，but secondary vocational education will face a low enrollment. Policy should be made in a prudent way with respect to senior middle school education for children without registered residence in Beijing. The door of secondary vocational education should be open for children without registered Beijing residence.