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    欧洲难民危机背景下德国在欧盟中的领导角色

    摘要

    当前欧盟正面临着多重危机——乌克兰危机、欧债危机、难民危机、暴恐危机、英国退欧公投危机,这些危机之间存在着某种关联性。其中,难民危机是最大的危机,因为它是道义性质的,事关申根体系的存亡。德国在欧洲难民危机中一度采取单边行动,原因之一在于德国认识到自己作为欧盟唯一的领导力量,有能力和意愿避免人道主义灾难。但是,默克尔所谋求的欧盟共同的危机解决方案并未完全得到其他国家的追随,尤其是强制性的难民分配比例遭到各国抵制,德国无法贯彻自己的意志。另外,随着德国国内右翼民粹政党德国选择党的壮大,默克尔政府在欧盟内的领导角色也会受到影响。有鉴于此,目前欧盟能够做的只是“小修小补”和减少损失,大的动作最早要到2017年年底才有可能看到,届时英国的脱欧公投将尘埃落定,而法国和德国也将完成政府换届。

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    Abstract

    The EU is at present facing multiple crises among which exist several correlations:the Ukrainian crisis,the European debt crisis,the refugee crisis,the crisis of violent terrorism and the crisis of the British referendum on withdrawing from the EU. Of all these crises,the refugee crisis is most important,because it is in essence a moral test concerning the survival of the Schengen system. Germany,realizing that as the EU’s leading power it was the only country that had the capacity as well as the intention to avoid a humanitarian disaster,acted unilaterally. The joint “European solution” that Chancellor Merkel has promoted has however not been fully supported by other countries. Several EU countries resisted a mandatory distribution quota for refugees that had been proposed by the Commission at the behest of Germany,thus making it impossible for Germany to carry out its plan. In addition,with the ascent of the Alternative für Deutschland(AfD),Germany’s new right-wing populist party,the leadership of Merkel’s government in the European Union will be further constrained. Therefore,the EU can at present only engage in minor repairs and damage control. The next prospect for improvement will not present itself before the end of 2017,when Britain will have made its choice in the referendum and France and Germany will have completed the succession of their respective governments.

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    作者简介
    郑春荣:郑春荣,博士、教授,同济大学德国研究中心主任,同济大学德国问题研究所/欧盟研究所所长。
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