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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    “全面小康”进程人民生活发展总体评价——2000~2014年民生指数检测

    摘要

    以人为本、以民生为本早已深入人心,全社会都意识到“GDP标准”的缺陷,以民生发展衡量政绩成为基本共识,“全面小康”建设的实际成效更应当以民生标准加以检验。2000~2014年,全国城乡综合演算的各类民生数据人均值持续明显增长,2014年居民收入为2000年的5。48倍,总消费为5。08倍,物质生活消费为4。81倍,非物生活消费为5。73倍,积蓄为6。83倍;但居民收入比从46。61%明显下降至43。25%,居民消费率从36。09%显著下降至31。08%,“十二五”期间略有回升;尤其是居民收入年均增长明显低于财政收入年增4。73个百分点,居民消费支出年均增长明显低于财政支出年增4。55个百分点;居民收入、总消费、物质生活消费、非物生活消费、积蓄地区差全方位不断缩小,居民消费需求(包括总消费及物质生活消费、非物生活消费三个方面)城乡比全面逐步缩小,居民收入、积蓄城乡比缩减不大甚至继续扩大;物质生活消费比重较明显降低3。77个百分点,非物生活消费比重较明显增高3。77个百分点,消费结构出现较大“升级”变化;而居民积蓄率从22。57%持续明显升高至28。14%,反过来即对消费需求的抑制作用加重。中共中央十八届五中全会明确,“十三五”期间将重点促进城乡区域协调发展,促进经济社会协调发展,坚持居民收入增长和经济发展同步,实现消费对经济增长贡献明显加大。这些策略需要实化和强化为“约束性指标”,加快提升全国人民生活发展指数,以更加显著的民生进步迎接“全面小康”建设进程目标年到来。

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    Abstract

    The people-oriented and people’s livelihood ruling ideology has enjoyed popular support,the whole society has been aware of GDP standard defect,it has been a basic consensus that the government performance should be measured by people’s livelihood development. The actual effects of “comprehensively completing the building of a moderately prosperous society” definitely should be measured by people’s livelihood development. From 2000 to 2014,the per capita value of all types of people’s livelihood data in national urban and rural comprehensive calculation evidently continue to increase,the residents’ income in 2014 is 5.48 times of that in 2000,the overall consumption is 5.08 times,the physical living consumption is 4.81 times,the non-physical living consumption is 5.73 times and the amassment is 6.83 times;But the ratio of residents’ income evidently fall from 46.61% to 43.25% and the ratio of residents’ consumption remarkably fall from 36.09% to 31.08%,it recover slightly while the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period;Especially the average annual growth of residents’ income is evidently 4.73 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal revenues and the average annual growth of residents’ consumption expenditure is evidently 4.55 percentage points lower than the annual growth of fiscal expenditure;The regional disparity of residents’ income,total consumption,physical living consumption,non-physical living consumption and amassment roundly continue to be reduced,the ratio of the urban and rural of residents’ consumption demand (including total consumption,physical living consumption and non-physical living consumption) roundly continue to be reduced,the ratio of the urban and rural of residents’ income and amassment slightly be reduced and even continuously be extended;The proportion of residents’ physical living consumption certainly debase over 3.77 percentage points and the proportion of residents’ non-physical living consumption certainly heighten over 3.77 percentage points,the consumption structure appearance certain “upgrade” change;However the ratio of residents’ amassment evidently continue to rise from 22.57% to 28.14%,the action which restrains residents’ consumption demand aggravate. The Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee has clearly put forward that during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period China will focus on promoting the regional harmonious development between urban and rural areas,promoting the coordinated development of economy and society,adhering to the residents’ income growth and economic development synchronization and that the consumption contributes a significantly larger share to economic growth. These strategies should be transformed and reinforced to “binding indicators”,so as to accelerate the upgrade of the national people’s livelihood development index,with a more significant progress to meet the target year of “roundly building a moderately prosperous society”.

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    作者简介
    王亚南:王亚南,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化开发研究中心主任。
    刘婷:刘婷,云南省社会科学院研究员,文化开发研究中心秘书长。
    魏海燕:魏海燕,云南省政协信息中心主任编辑,主要从事传媒信息分析研究。
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