2015年日本经济出现了短期的复苏,股市持续居于高位,日元兑美元汇率也维持较低水平,加之世界经济下行压力趋缓,日本的出口持续增长,但势头减弱。失业率持续下降,就业状况良好。企业收益有所上升,但并未还原于社会,设备投资与私人消费仍处于低迷状态。由于2017年4月将要再次提高消费税率等因素的刺激,估计2016年日本经济将会持续温和复苏,略好于2015年。在中国经济减速、人工费上涨等经济因素与中日政治关系改善缓慢等政治原因共同作用下,2015年的中日经济关系严重下滑,双边贸易和双边直接投资出现大幅度下降,中日财政金融合作停滞不前,中日韩自贸区谈判也迟迟没有结果,“政冷经冷”的态势越来越明显。倘若中日政治关系能够进一步改善,在“一带一路”建设背景下,2016年的中日经贸合作关系也可能出现一定回升。
<<In 2015,there is a short-term growth effect in Japanese economy,including high stock and weak yen. Combined with the slowdown in the world economic downward pressure,Japanese exports got better. In addition,the unemployment rate continued to decline,and the employment situation is good. Business income has increased,but didn’t restore to the society,the equipment investment and private consumption are still in the doldrums. Influenced by factors such as the raise of consumption tax in April 2017,Japanese economy will continue to moderate recovery in 2016,and will be slightly better than 2015.
Due to economic factors such as China’s economic slowdown and labor cost rising,and Sino-Japanese political relations’ slowly improving,Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations in 2015 had a significant drop,bilateral trade and foreign direct investment dropped substantially,two-way government bonds holding and the direct trading of RMB experienced setbacks,and negotiations on China-Japan-Korea FTA decreased significantly,which reflected the cold political and economic relationships starkly. If Sino-Japanese political relations show warming signs,Sino-Japanese economic and trade relationship is expected to improve in 2016.
<<Keywords: | TPPAbenomicsJapan’s EconomySino-Japanese Economic and Trade RelationshipThe New Three ArrowChina’s Explosive Buy |