测算2020年全国文化投入预期增长目标,按照2000~2014年平均增速“自然增长”,可达到6889。48亿元;实现产值—财政支出—教科文卫综合投入—文化投入历年各项最佳比值“应然增长”,应达到10815。26亿元;进而实现文化投入与消费同构占比平衡“民生增长”,应达到16168。17亿元;最终实现文化投入各地人均值均等化“理想增长”,将达到21014。98亿元。以到2020年所需年均增长率衡量各类增长目标距离,分别测算各省域排行:北京、西藏、上海、青海、海南排在最佳比值增长目标前5位,西藏、北京、上海、新疆、青海排在同构占比增长目标前5位,西藏、北京、青海、内蒙古、新疆排在均等化增长目标前5位。
<<Based upon the average growth rate of “natural growth” from 2000 to 2014,the expected target of countrywide culture investment growth should be 688.948 billion yuan;if it should get the ought-to-be growth at the best ratio over the years in terms of the productive value,the fiscal expenditure,the E.S.C.H.(education,science & technology,culture,health)investment and the culture investment,it would reach 1081.526 billion yuan;if the balanced isomorphism proportion of culture investment and consumption should come true,it would reach 1616.817 billion yuan;if the ideal growth of the equal culture investment should realize,it would reach 2101.498 billion yuan. By using the required annual growth rate to 2020 to measure the absolute distance of all kinds of growth target,ranking of the various provinces is as follows:Beijing,Tibet,Shanghai,Qinghai and Hainan rank top five in the best ratio growth target;Tibet,Beijing,Shanghai,Xinjiang and Qinghai rank top five in the growth target of isomorphism proportion;Tibet,Beijing,Qinghai,Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang rank top five in the equal growth target.
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