四川县镇数量在全国排名第一,县域常住人口和户籍人口均超出全省总人口一半,但城镇化率滞后于全省水平,也滞后于工业化水平,是全省城镇化的重点和难点。分析表明,户籍制度本身并不是县镇人口城镇化的最大障碍,经济人口承载压力大,且贫困面广、贫困程度深,是人口难以实现在城镇稳定生活就业的决定要素。从产业结构看,全省县(市)2014年三次产业比重为18∶53∶29,第一产业小于20%,且第二产业大于第三产业比重,已经具备工业化中期的主要特征。但进一步观察,这种产业结构建立在低水平基础上,就业岗位的供给以及公共财政的贡献都相对较低,导致人口集聚能力不足。未来,大多数县镇人口净流出趋势短期内难以改变,甚至还可能加剧;总体上县镇处于人口红利中后期,有条件的县镇将获得人口素质效应;人口流向特征鲜明,区域性中心城镇将加速建成。
<<The number of Sichuan’s towns is more than 1800 and the population exceeded half of the total. But the urbanization rate has lagged behind. This report shows that it is not biggest obstacle for the population urbanization to the Household Registration System but the economic bearing pressure and wide and deep poverty. From the industrial structure,the county already has the main features of the mid-industrialization. But further observation,because the supply of jobs and the contribution of public finances are relatively low,this industry structure is built on the basis of a low level. In the future,it is difficult to change the trend of net outflows of the majority population of the towns in short term,and may even exacerbate;the whole towns late in the demographic dividend,conditional towns will get the population quality effect;population flows distinctive features,the regional central town will be built.
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