本文从畜产品生产、价格和成本效益等角度对畜牧业发展进行分析,并对畜牧业在短期和中长期的发展趋势进行了展望。2015年,肉类总产量和猪肉产量同比下降,牛肉、羊肉、禽肉产量增长速度有所回升,牛奶总产略有增长。主要畜产品供求关系有紧有松,猪肉价格回升、牛肉价格高位稳定、羊肉价格趋于下降、牛奶价格低位徘徊后略有回升。2016年,受经济低迷影响,畜产品消费需求增长乏力,甚至有较大概率出现下降。但是,饲料粮价格下降将有利于提高养殖效益、稳定畜牧业生产。在两方面因素共同作用下,畜产品价格可能整体下降,这对于改善消费需求增长动力不足有一定的积极作用。
<<This report analyzes the development of livestock industry in the aspects of production,market prices and cost-benefits,and makes a forecast in short and long terms. In 2015,the total production of meats and of pork meat decreased,while the growth rate of production of beef,lamb and poultry increased gently and the production of milk increased slightly. The relationship between demand and supply differed among products. To be specific,price of pork meat rebounded;beef price stabilized at a high point;lamb price decreased;milk price rose slightly after lingering at a low price. In 2016,affected by the economy depression,the demand for animal products is very likely to decline. But the decline in feed prices helps improve the economic benefits of animal breeding and stabilize the production. Under the effects of these two factors,the prices of animal products are likely to decrease,which might help drive the demand for livestock products.
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