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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2015年经济作物市场分析与2016年展望

    摘要

    2015年,受农产品市场宏观调控政策调整的影响,中国以棉花、油料和糖料为主的经济作物市场格局发生重大改变。中国棉花和糖料产量继续减产,棉花播种面积减少趋势明显,经济作物种植区位优势进一步提升;经济作物产品消费持续增长,但食糖因供需缺口较大而进口依存度较高;棉花和油菜籽价格大幅下跌,农民种植效益明显下降。综合考虑国际经济环境与国内供需形势,预测2016年中国棉花市场下行压力加大,花生和油菜籽市场趋于分化,食糖供需缺口将继续存在。

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    Abstract

    The market pattern of cash crops(mainly cotton,oil crops and sugar crops)has changed a lot in China due to the domestic policy adjustments in 2015. The production of cotton and sugar crops declined,and the cultivation area of cotton decreased significantly. But the regional concentration of cash crops cultivation has been continuously happening. The domestic demand for cash crops increased continuously,and a high domestic demand for sugar made China highly dependent on sugar imports. Owing to a sharp decline in the prices for cotton and rapeseed,the planting benefits for farmers have decreased last year. In view of the international economic environment and the current situation of supply and demand in China,the domestic price of cotton is likely to decrease in 2016,while the prices of peanut and rapeseed is projected to go to different directions. The gap between sugar demand and supply is likely to remain.

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    作者简介
    韩磊:韩磊,博士,中国社会科学院农村发展研究所助理研究员,主要从事农产品市场领域的研究。
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