2015年,由于粮食继续增产、需求不旺、库存量大、进口增加等原因,粮食供给总体宽松。分品种看,玉米和大豆供求矛盾比较突出。主要受国际粮食价格、国内玉米临储政策调整等因素影响,粮食生产者价格小幅下跌。由于结构性需求、国内粮食价格过高等原因,稻谷、玉米及其替代品进口增幅较大。综合考虑全球粮食市场形势、国内经济形势、国内政策调整等因素,预计2016年稻谷、小麦产量与上年持平或略增,玉米产量会有所下降;薯类、豆类产量会有所增加。稻谷、小麦价格预计比较平稳,玉米、大豆价格会有一定幅度波动;稻谷、小麦、大豆进口增加幅度将比较有限,玉米及其替代品进口增幅可能下降。
<<The year 2015 has witnessed a continued increase in grain production,insufficient domestic demand,high grain stocks level,and growth in grain imports. The contradiction between supply and demand of corn and soybeans was prominent. Mainly affected by the international grain prices fluctuation and domestic corn reserve policy adjustments,the grain producer price fell slightly. Owing to a changing structural demand and higher domestic price,the imports of rice,corn and their substitutes increased greatly. In view of the global grain market situation,the domestic economic situation,and the domestic policy adjustments,the yields of rice,wheat,potatoes and beans are expected to remain or rise slightly in 2016,while the corn production is likely to fall. The prices of rice and wheat are expected to be relatively stable,while the prices of corn and soybeans are likely to fluctuate. The imports of rice,wheat and soybeans are expected to rise slightly,while those of corn and its substitutes to increase at a lower rate compared to last year.
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