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    2015年人口老龄化主题下的投资机会分析

    摘要

    我国人口年龄结构发展出现的特征是老龄化,自2000年开始我国已经步入老龄化国家,65岁及以上人口的比例达7%,2013年升至9。70%,预计2020年甚至将达到12%。人口老龄化对消费需求存在直接和间接影响,研究表明,中国当前处于人口老龄化的初期阶段,老年人口比重快速提高的同时伴随着少儿人口比重的迅速下降,在老年人消费系数高于少儿消费系数的情况下,中国人口老龄化对消费的影响表现出正效应。中国人口老龄化的快速发展扩大了对居住、家庭设备及服务、健康医疗、文体教育的消费需求。当前所处的老龄化初期对消费整体仍具有正向作用。老龄化发展过程中对健康医疗服务的需求将持续上升,相关健康医疗以及老龄服务业持续受益。此外,从城乡居民消费结构差异看,随着城镇化的推进,居住、衣着、家庭设备、医疗保健以及通信等方面的支出将明显增加。

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    Abstract

    The development of China’s population structure is characterized by aging,since 2000,China has entered an aging country,the proportion of population over the age of 65 has reached 7%,in 2013 has risen to 9.70%,is expected to reach 12% in 2020. Population aging on consumption demand exists direct and indirect effects,studies have shown that China is currently in the early stages of the aging of the population,rapid increase in the proportion of the elderly population is accompanied by a rapid decline in the proportion of the population of children and in the elderly consumption coefficient is higher than the number of children’s Department of consumer,China’s elderly population of effect on consumption is shown a positive effect. The rapid development of China’s aging population has expanded the consumer demand for housing,household equipment and services,health care,sports and sports education. Focus on investment in the field:first of all,the current aging of the early stage of the consumer is still a positive role in the overall. Aging development process will continue to rise in demand for health care services,health care and related health care industry continues to benefit. In addition,from urban and rural residents consumption structure differences,with the advance of urbanization,living,clothing,household equipment,health care and communication and other aspects of the expenditure will be significantly increased.

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    作者简介
    方伊奇:方伊奇,信达风投资管理有限公司高级经理、高级研究员、经济学学士、金融硕士
    邹继征:邹继征,中国建投研究院高级研究员
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