制造业是实体经济的主体、国民经济的脊梁,是全面建成小康社会和实现现代化的物质基础,也是转变经济发展方式、调整优化产业结构的主战场。自2010年以来,我国制造业增加值连续五年超过美国,成为制造业大国。然而,我国制造业大而不强。在创新能力、核心竞争力、质量效益等方面,与制造业发达国家仍有明显差距。加快促进制造业转型升级、推动制造大国向制造强国转变,是经济新常态下制造业应着力实现的重大战略目标。制造业的转型升级涉及面广、点多、链长,所需要的资金量大。要坚持整体推进、重点突破的原则,着力加强供给侧结构性改革,围绕产业链部署创新链、围绕创新链完善资金链,聚焦制造强国战略目标,形成政策、资金有效投资合力。基于以上对制造业的整体把握,本报告首先更多的是从理论层面阐述制造业的升级路径;然后,从理论层面分析转向实践领域,前瞻预判我国制造业中长期内升级的七大方向和趋势;进一步,从宏观研究转向中观(微观)分析,更多地从机构投资者的角度,尝试着探讨中长期我国制造升级过程中的投资机会,分析提出了高端装备制造、新一代信息技术、节能环保、新材料、生物、节能与新能源汽车等六大重点的投资领域及行业隐含的具体投资需求;最后,指出了投资于制造升级需要注意的五个方面的风险。
<<Manufacturing is the main factor and backbone of the national economy,also is material basis for building a well-off society and modernizing,also do a lot in transforming the pattern of economic development,adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure. Since 2010,for five consecutive years,the added value of Chinese manufacturing industry is more than United States,China is a big manufacturing country now. However,China’s manufacturing industry is large but not strong,in areas such as innovation and core competence,quality and efficiency,china’s manufacturing is still an apparent gap compare with developed countries. Accelerate the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry,shift from a large manufacturing country to a strong manufacturing country power is strategic goals in a new-normal economy. In this transformation and upgrading,many point,long industry chain will involve,and amount of capital investment is required. Adhere to the principles of overall progress,breakthrough at key points,strengthen efforts to structural reform of the supply side,around industry chain deploy Innovation chain,improve the capital chain around the innovation chain,focus on strategic object of a strong manufacturing country,centralized government,enterprises and social capital resources,form an effective joint effort of investment policy and funding is needed. Based on above overall analyze,this report first from theory level describe manufacturing of upgrade path;then,from theory analysis to practice level,prepropose the seven directions of medium-and long-term manufacturing upgrading;further,from macro to micro view,in the perspective of institutional investors,explore the investment opportunities in China’s manufacturing medium-and long-term upgrading,the capital need in six key areas and industries;in the last,put forward five risks which should be cared about during the manufacturing transformation and upgrading.
<<Keywords: | Medium and Long TermCountry’s Manufacturing PowerManufacturing Transformation and UpgradingIndustry Demand |