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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    巴西联邦共和国

    摘要

    2014年,罗塞夫在总统选举中惊险获胜,帮助劳工党实现了对社会民主党的“四连胜”,但微弱的票差反映出两大传统政党的力量均势,也预示着罗塞夫未来执政的难度增大。经济层面,“滞胀”特征非常明显,财政和经常账户均改变了多年持续的盈余趋势。尽管经济增长乏力,巴西劳动力市场在2014年依然活跃,失业率延续最近几年来的下降趋势。但是,民众抗议活动常发现象显示了处在转型之中的巴西社会所面临的挑战。在大选年,外交力度有所收缩,但凭借着承办金砖国家峰会,巴西的国际影响力获得了一定的提升。

    Em2014,oPartidodosTrabalhadores(PT),emvirtudedavitóriadeDilmaRousseffnaeleiçãopresidencial,emboraporumamargemestreita,conseguiuasuaquartavitóriacontraoPartidodaSocialDemocraciaBrasileira(PSDB)。Noentanto,estadiferençamínimanavotaçãoentreosdoiscandidatosrefleteoequilíbriodosdoisprincipaispartidostradicionaisbrasileiros,eindicaqueaPresidenteDilmaRousseffenfrentarámaisdificuldadesepressõesnoseusegundomandato。Deumpontodevistaeconómico,oBrasilenfrentouumgrandedesafiode“estagflação”etantoacontafiscalquantoacontacorrentealteraramatendênciaexcedentáriadosúltimosanos。Apesardofracocrescimentoeconómico,omercadodetrabalhomanteve-seativoem2014eataxadedesempregocontinuouatendênciadecrescentedosanosanteriores。Contudo,asmanifestaçõesfrequentesrevelamqueoBrasilaindaenfrentamuitosdesafiosnoseuprocessodetransformaçãosocial。Apolíticaexternanãofoiumaprioridadedogovernobrasileironoanodaeleiçãopresidencial,masasuainfluênciainternacionalfoireforçadapeloacolhimentodaCimeiradoBRICSnomesmoano。

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    Abstract

    In 2014,the Workers’ Party(PT,in Portuguese),owing to Dilma Rousseff’s win by a narrow margin in the presidential election,got its fourth winning streak contra the Brazilian Social Democracy Party(PSDB,in Portuguese),but the narrow vote difference between the two candidates reflected the balance of the two principal Brazilian traditional parties,which also indicated that the President Dilma Rousseff would face more difficulties and pressures in her second term. From the economic perspective,Brazil encountered a big challenge of stagflation,both the primary fiscal account and the current account,changed their trend of surplus in recent years. Despite the weak economic growth,the labor market maintained active in 2014,and the unemployment decreased continuously. However,the frequent manifestation reflected that Brazil is facing many challenges during the process of its social transformation. Foreign policy wasn’t a priority of the Brazilian government in the Election year,but its international influence was enhanced because of its hosting the BRICS Summit in 2014.

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    作者简介
    周志伟:周志伟,中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所副研究员,巴西研究中心执行主任。曾在巴西圣保罗大学国际关系研究所、里约热内卢天主教大学金砖政策研究中心、Fluminense联邦大学战略研究所担任访问学者。主要研究领域:巴西综合、巴西国际战略、拉美地区一体化和中拉关系。
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