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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2015年中国税收形势分析预测及2016年初步展望

    摘要

    2015年税收收入,第一季度累计呈明显的低速运行态势,其增长速度远低于经济增速3。5个百分点;第二季度累计增速为4。7%,虽有回升,但仍然低于经济增速2。2个百分点;第三季度累计增速继续回升为5。5%,与经济增速差距进一步缩小至1。4个百分点。主要税种收入增速较上年有升有降,沿海重点税源大省税收收入增速增幅回升,多数省份税收收入较上年增速回落,直接全国税收收入增速呈现回落态势。2015年假如中国宏观经济形势处于“新常态”运行态势,税收收入也将进入一个中速增长时期,并继续与经济增长保持基本同步。

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    Abstract

    The first quarter of China’s tax revenue shows a significant low-speed running trend in 2015,a year for which the growth rate is much lower than the economic growth rate of 3.5 percent;the cumulative growth rate in the second quarter is 4.7%,but still below the economic growth rate of 2.2 percent;the cumulative growth rate in the third quarter is 5.5%,which narrows the gap of the economic growth rate of 1.4 percent. Some of the main categories of taxes on income growth over the previous year rise and some of them fall. The growth rate of the principle sources of tax revenue in the coastal province has picked up,and the growth rate of most provinces over the previous year has slowed down,which directly affects the growth rate of the national tax revenue which shows a downward trend. In 2015,if China’s macroeconomic situation is still in the New Normal,the tax revenue will also enter a period of a moderately fast growth rate,and will continue to keep pace with the economic growth.

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    作者简介
    付广军:付广军,国家税务总局税收研究所研究员。
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