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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    我国2016年经济和投资发展形势分析和预测

    摘要

    2015年,我国前三季度投资增速下滑,第四季度预计好转,全年经济增长稳定在7%左右。2016年存在利于投资增长的有利因素:好的历史时期、政府的决心、“十三五”规划、政策影响;但同时也存在以下不利因素:制造业缺乏投资热点、建设资金缺少、房地产疲软、部分企业地方政府不作为。预计2016年,投资增长将高于11%,消费增长高于2015年,经济增长保持在7%左右。对此提出加大财政政策和货币政策实施力度,鼓励大众创新等建议。

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    Abstract

    In 2015,the condition of investments in China presented a downward trend in the first three quarters while it presented an upward trend in the fourth quarter,and the full-year growth rate is expected to remain steady at around 7%. There are some favorable factors for the growth of investments in 2016,such as:a good historical period,the government’s determination,the “ Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and good policies. However,at the same time,there are also the following disadvantages:a lack of attractive aspects for investments to be made in the manufacturing sector,an absence of construction funds,a soft housing market,and some enterprises and local governments are not doing their duties. The forecast for 2016 is:China’s investment growth rate will be higher than 11%,its consumption growth rate will be higher than that of 2015,China’s economic growth rate will remain at around 7%. Therefore,fiscal and monetary policies,encouraging innovation policies and measures,etc. should be proposed.

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    作者简介
    张汉亚:张汉亚,中国投资协会,研究员。
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