2015年前三季度,工业经济增长面临着较大的下行压力,增速下滑到改革开放以来的较低水平。但工业结构调整取得了积极进展,工业经济增长质量有所提升。潜在产出增长率下降是工业经济增速下滑的根本原因。未来一段时间里我国潜在产出增长率的变化轨迹,既取决于经济自身的发展和调整,也取决于国家推进经济结构调整和体制机制改革的速度、广度、深度。2015年和2016年全部工业企业增加值增速的预测值分别为5。8%和5。5%左右;规模以上工业企业增加值增速的预测值分别为6%和5。7%左右。在当前背景下,国家应降低工业经济增速预期;尽量避免出台大规模经济刺激政策;加快以体制机制改革促进工业经济结构调整;充分发挥市场机制作用,促进工业企业创新。
<<In the first three quarters of 2015,the industrial growth faced great downside pressure,and the growth rate fell to the lowest level since the reform and the opening up. However,the adjustment of industrial structure had made positive progress,and the quality of industrial growth had improved. The decline of the potential output growth rate is the fundamental reason for the downturn of the industrial economy. In the coming period,the change in China’s potential output growth rate will depend on the development and adjustment of the economy itself,and it will also depend on the speed,breadth and depth of the economic restructuring and the reform of the institutional mechanisms. The annual industrial output growth in 2015 and 2016 is expected to reach around 5.8% and 5.5% respectively. The forecasts for the growth of the added-value of Enterprises above Designated Size in 2015 and 2016 are 6% and 5.7% respectively. In the current context,the government should reduce the forecast for industrial economic growth,avoid the introduction of large-scale economic stimulus policies,accelerate the reform of the system and mechanisms to promote the adjustment of industrial economic structure,and give full play to the role of the market mechanism to promote industrial enterprise innovation.
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