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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    当前工业经济形势分析

    摘要

    2015年前三季度,工业经济增长面临着较大的下行压力,增速下滑到改革开放以来的较低水平。但工业结构调整取得了积极进展,工业经济增长质量有所提升。潜在产出增长率下降是工业经济增速下滑的根本原因。未来一段时间里我国潜在产出增长率的变化轨迹,既取决于经济自身的发展和调整,也取决于国家推进经济结构调整和体制机制改革的速度、广度、深度。2015年和2016年全部工业企业增加值增速的预测值分别为5。8%和5。5%左右;规模以上工业企业增加值增速的预测值分别为6%和5。7%左右。在当前背景下,国家应降低工业经济增速预期;尽量避免出台大规模经济刺激政策;加快以体制机制改革促进工业经济结构调整;充分发挥市场机制作用,促进工业企业创新。

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    Abstract

    In the first three quarters of 2015,the industrial growth faced great downside pressure,and the growth rate fell to the lowest level since the reform and the opening up. However,the adjustment of industrial structure had made positive progress,and the quality of industrial growth had improved. The decline of the potential output growth rate is the fundamental reason for the downturn of the industrial economy. In the coming period,the change in China’s potential output growth rate will depend on the development and adjustment of the economy itself,and it will also depend on the speed,breadth and depth of the economic restructuring and the reform of the institutional mechanisms. The annual industrial output growth in 2015 and 2016 is expected to reach around 5.8% and 5.5% respectively. The forecasts for the growth of the added-value of Enterprises above Designated Size in 2015 and 2016 are 6% and 5.7% respectively. In the current context,the government should reduce the forecast for industrial economic growth,avoid the introduction of large-scale economic stimulus policies,accelerate the reform of the system and mechanisms to promote the adjustment of industrial economic structure,and give full play to the role of the market mechanism to promote industrial enterprise innovation.

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    作者简介
    原磊:中国社会科学院工业经济研究所。
    金碚:中国社会科学院工业经济研究所。
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