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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    经济增速回调接近触底,2016年有望平稳开局——2015~2016年...

    摘要

    2015年中国工业增速缓中趋稳,消费持续平稳增长,房地产市场销售持续回暖,基础设施投资增速虽有波动但势头趋强,过剩产能处置力度加大,股市风险得到控制,中国经济在错综复杂的国内外形势下,经济增速继续回调,预计经济增速回调已接近触底。预计2016年出口增速在5%左右,投资增长率预计为11%左右,消费实际增长率预计为10。5%左右,中国经济有望为“十三五”时期实现平稳开局。政府必须把稳增长与推进经济转型升级紧密结合,通过不断改善发展环境、提高微观基础和经济结构对环境变化的适应能力,加快培育和巩固经济增长的新常态。

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    Abstract

    In 2015,China’s industrial growth has been slow to stabilize,consumption continues to grow steadily,and real estate sales continue to pick up. Despite the fact that investment in infrastructure has grown with fluctuation,there is still a strong investment willingness. Besides,the efforts to get rid of overcapacity are increasing,and the stock market risk is under control. Under the complicated domestic and international situation,the correction of China’s economic growth will continue and is expected to reach its lowest point. It is predicted that the export growth rate will be at around 5%,the investment growth rate will be around 11%,and the real consumption growth rate will be 10.5% in 2016. China’s economy is expected to achieve a smooth recovery during the 13th Five-Year Plan. The government should connect stable growth with economic transformation. At the same time,the government should accelerate the development and consolidation of economic growth in the New Normal by continuously improving environmental development,economic structure,and the microfoundation of environmental adaption.

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    作者简介
    张立群:张立群,国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部,研究员。
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