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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    “十三五”时期我国经济波动态势展望

    摘要

    本文首先分析了“十三五”开局之年我国将要面临的宏观经济波动态势,在此基础上,提出“十三五”时期我国宏观经济走势的四种可能性:一路下行、一路走平、一路冲高,以及遵循经济波动规律,在合理区间正常波动。本文认为,新常态并不意味着经济增速一路下行,宏观调控采取“微刺激”与“保下限”的政策越来越被动。本文提出,2015年党中央关于“十三五”规划建议的编制,以及2016年初国家“十三五”规划纲要的启动和实施,将会是在我国经济发展进入新常态情况下,对我国未来经济发展做出的重大战略部署,将会形成对我国经济增长具有中长期持久推动作用的力量。这样,2015年我国经济增速的回落有望触底,即有望完成阶段性探底过程,“十三五”时期有可能进入新常态下的新一轮上升周期。

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    Abstract

    First of all,this paper analyses the situation of China’s macroeconomic fluctuations during the first year of “the 13th Five-Year Plan”. Based on this analysis,the paper foresees that there will be four possibilities for China’s macroeconomic trends in “the 13th Five-Year Plan” Period:long-lasting deceleration of the economic growth rate,long-lasting stagnation of the economic growth rate,rapid acceleration of the economic growth rate,and following the normalization of economic fluctuation,a reasonably normal fluctuation of economic growth. This paper explains that the New Normal does not imply a slowdown of the economy,and it illustrates that the macroeconomic control policies to continue with “the weak stimulus” and “hold to the lower limit” will be more and more passive. As foreseen in this paper,the proposals for “the 13th Five-Year Plan” by the Central Committee of the Party in 2015,and its implementation at the beginning of 2016,will be part of China’s economic development under the New Normal circumstances;they will be an important strategic deployment of China’s economic development in the future,and they will form a long-lasting power for the promotion of China’s economic growth. In this way,China’s economic growth is expected to avoid a bottom-out in 2015 and is expected to enter a new cycle of rising growth during the New Normal of “the 13th Five-Year Plan” Period.

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    作者简介
    刘树成:刘树成,中国社会科学院学部委员、经济学部副主任。
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