您好,欢迎来到皮书数据库!
热点推荐: 双循环
更多>> 课题组动态
更多>> 皮书作者
谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
    中国社会科学院国家高端智库首席专家,学部委员,学部主席团秘书长,研究员,博士生导师。先后毕业于中国人民大学、中国... 详情>>
李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    气候承载力评估的意义及基本方法

    摘要

    生态文明建设需要兼顾资源环境保护和经济社会发展。气候是重要的环境资源之一,也是人类社会赖以发展的基础,气候变化已经在全球范围内产生了重要的影响并还将持续,进而影响到人口、生计、经济、资源、生态等诸多方面。在未来的发展规划中,需要统筹考虑气候要素的变化和气候变化的影响,充分遵循气候规律,考虑气候资源的承载能力,界定气候资源所能承载的自然生态系统和人类社会与经济活动的强度和规模。本文介绍了资源环境承载力相关的研究背景,给出了气候承载力的概念,并提出气候承载力评估的一般方法,结合实际评估案例,阐明气候承载力评估的迫切性和重要性,以及其对社会经济发展的现实意义。气候承载力评估刚刚起步,还面临很多挑战。首先亟待构建并完善气候承载力理论基础及评估框架。其次是气候承载力评估需要因地制宜地开展,注重实用性和可操作性;开展气候承载力评估需要与其他学科的交叉融合,拓宽气候承载力评估的应用领域和服务对象。最后开展气候承载力评估,特别是定量化的承载力评估还需要不断创新,融入新的技术方法。

    <<
    >>

    Abstract

    Construction of ecological civilization needs consider both environmental protection and economic-social development. Climate is an important environmental resource;it is also a foundation which human and society development depends on. Climate change is happening and induces to a significant influence on different scales,and the impacts will be continuing in the future. Climate change has affected people,livelihoods,economy,resources,ecosystems and many other aspects. It will completely change many aspects of our lives. We need consider the change of climate system and its impacts in the future developing plan,follow and abide the climatic rules,take consideration to climatic carrying capacity. We also need primly know the intense and scale of human and socio-economic activities which the climatic resources can carry. In this article,we introduce some related research background about the environmental and resources carrying capacity,and bring out the concept of climatic carrying capacity. Also,we summarize general approach of assessment on climatic carrying capacity and introduce the two case studies of climatic carrying capacity,to clarify the urgency and importance of climatic carrying capacity,as well as its practical significance to social and economic development. The assessment of climatic carrying capacity now has just started,it faces many challenges. We suggest that the first thing should be built and improved the theoretical foundation and assessment framework of climatic carrying capacity;then during the assessing,should be focused on practicality and operability according with local conditions;Thirdly,it need to integrate with other cross-disciplines,broaden the application areas and service objects;and finally,innovation and using new technology and methods should be carry on in assessing climatic carrying capacity,especially on quantitative carrying capacity assessment.

    <<
    >>
    作者简介
    於琍:於琍,国家气候中心高级工程师,研究领域为气候变化影响评估。
    卢燕宇:卢燕宇,安徽气候中心副研究员,研究领域为气候变化。
    黄玮:黄玮,云南省气候中心高级工程师,研究领域为气候变化。
    徐雨晴:徐雨晴,国家气候中心副研究员,研究领域为气候变化。
    <<
    >>
    相关报告