本文的目的是探索中国劳动力流动的潜在动态变化,并且类比的对象为国际迁移,特别是墨西哥劳动力迁移到美国的案例。从墨西哥到美国的劳动力迁移已经长达40多年之久,在此期间迁移流的特征有显著变化。文中将考察墨西哥—美国迁移形势的主要变化,并且显示出其是如何随着影响来源地、目标地和迁移过程的因素的变化而变化的,并且将这些因素与可能影响中国迁移系统的类似因素进行比较。如果中国的迁移过程对上述因素变化的反应,与连接美国和墨西哥的迁移过程的反应方式类似,则我们能够期望看到中国迁移形势的如下变化:向沿海城市的迁移更多,原因是在目前的输出地中迁移进一步强化,而且迁移向新的区域扩散;目标地内部的职业更加多元化,导致了技能和教育水平更高的迁移者增加;在迁移流中出现更多的妇女和家人,以及更多的定居。
<<>The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential dynamics of Chinese labor migration,based upon an analogy with Mexican labor migration to the United States. It has now been over forty years since the beginning of undocumented Mexico-U.S. labor migration,during which the profile of the migration stream has changed in significant ways. This paper uses the changes in that profile to identify factors at the origin,the destination,and the migration process that have affected its evolution over time,and looks to parallel factors in China that might influence the dynamics of migration there. If migration in China were to respond to changes in these factors in a fashion similar to that linking the U.S. and Mexico,we would expect to see the following changes in the profile of Chinese migration over the next two decades:more migration to the coastal cities,both because of the intensification of migration from current sending areas and the spread of migration to new areas,greater occupational diversification within destination areas leading to higher skill and education of migrants,more women and families in the migrant stream,and more settlement in the cities.
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