行业工资指导线是缩小行业工资差距的重要调控手段。地方实践工作中存在着政策定位与导向不明、测算方法单一且忽略行业和微观因素、“拍脑袋”和“地方攀比”等问题。本报告明确制定行业工资指导线的总体思路是,在对工资增长趋势进行定量预测的基础上,综合考虑宏中微观因素,依据国家收入分配调控原则确定特定行业的工资合理增长幅度。其中,在对行业工资增长趋势进行定量预测时,应组合使用“时间序列分析预测法”(含移动平均、指数平滑和B-J法ARIMA模型等)和“因果分析预测法”(即线性回归模型)两大途径、多种方法,并根据方法特点和模型精度按不同权重加权计算进行组合预测。
本报告选择金融业和住宿餐饮业为代表,运用组合预测法定量预测并提出2013年、2014年工资指导线。经检验证明,该方法的测算结果与实际情况较接近,有利于缩小行业工资差距,确保企业人工成本投入产出指标在合理范围内。此外,报告还就行业工资指导线的政策定位、发布主体以及调控途径与机制等政策层面的问题进行了初步探讨。
<<Industry wage guideline is an important policy to narrow the wage gap among industries. In the practices of local governments,there are some Problems such as the fuzzy orientation,the simple calculation method,Ignorance on the industry and micro factors. This report points out the right method,steps,and the reference factors to formulate industry wage guidelines. On the basis of quantitative predictions on wage growth trend which was a combination of time series analysis method and regression model,this report proposes the Industry wage guidelines for accommodation and catering industry and the financial industry in 2013 and 2014,considering the multiplex macrocosmic and microcosmic complication. This report also tests the wage guidelines above-mentioned by the labor cost index and the local practices.
<<Keywords: | Wage GapIndustry Wage GuidelineTime Series Analysis MethodRegression ModelCombination Forecasting Method |