当前,食品安全事件处于高发期,媒体和社会公众对食品安全事件高度关注,这对政府的食品安全管理提出了更严峻的挑战。针对食品安全舆情生命周期短、发展曲线较为规律等特点,本文认为基于熵权和马尔可夫链模型预测食品安全舆情热度趋势具有可行性。本文基于2013年的食品安全热点舆情事件,搜集舆情事件在主要微博、主流食品安全论坛中的发帖量、转载量以及回复量,运用熵权法计算评价指标权重,采用马尔可夫链构造状态转移矩阵,预测食品安全舆情事件的趋势变化区间。本文在对2013年20余项主要热点事件进行回溯后,发现基于熵权的马尔可夫链模型预测热度变化的准确性高,证明马尔可夫链适用于食品安全舆情事件的预测。
<<关键词: | 食品安全 |
Recently China has been in a high-incidence season of food safety events and not only social media but also public pay great attention to them. The government is facing a severe challenge of food safety management. According to the features of food safety events such as short life cycle,regular development curve and so on,it is feasible to predict the heat trend of online public opinion in food safety area using Entropy Law and Markov Chain Model. Based on detailed analysis of hot food safety events through the amount of micro-blogs’and forums’posts as well as forums’comments and reposts,the weight of each indicator can be calculated. And then utilize Markov transfer matrix to predict the trend of online public opinion in food safety. After retrospective forecast of popular food safety events in 2013,the accuracy of prediction using Markov Chain Model is 85% means Markov Chain Model is suitable to forecast the trend of food safety online public opinions.
<<