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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    北京高校学生的传谣意愿与谣传感知

    摘要

    在北京高校学生传谣意愿的调查中,约75%(或25%)的被调查者表示愿意(或不愿意)讨论自己最近听到的谣传。传谣的理由包括“交流娱乐”“相关”“求真相”等;不传谣的理由包括“不相关”“不确信”“太色情”等。在被调查者所列举的谣传中,负面谣传约占60%,正面谣传约占8%;过半谣传被感知到暴力、恶心、仇官、涉及领导、种群歧视、利己或专业;约80%的谣传被反驳过,但只有不到30%的反驳来源被认为是专业的;约70%的谣传被感知到涉及突发事件、传播可能被惩罚或涉及安全健康;约60%的谣传被感知到具有煽动性或利他性。通过统计分析传谣意愿与谣传感知的数据发现:①谣传与安全健康的相关度、谣传主体知名度、谣传类型是三个传谣意愿的线性正向显著预测因子。②专业且搞笑的谣传被传播的概率最高(94%),非专业且来源专业性较低的谣传被传播的概率最低(51。6%)。③情色度、恶心度、搞笑度、反驳知名度、领导级别、利己度、专业度分别与传谣意愿成“抛物线”形关联。④仇官或暴力程度与传谣意愿呈“U”形关联。

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    Abstract

    There are about 75%(or 25%)respondents expressed he would(or not)like to discuss the rumor which he heard lately in the survey of rumor transmission intention of college student in Beijing. The reasons for discussing rumor are “communication and entertainment” “relevance” “seeking truth” and so on. The reasons for refusing to discuss rumor are “irrelevance” “trustless” “too erotic” and so on. Among the rumors from respondents,about 60% rumors are negative;about 8% rumors are positive;more than half of rumors were perceived violent,disgusting,hostile to official,relevant to leader,discriminatory towards others(e.g. immigrant,some race,people with other religion),selfish or professional;about 80% rumors were refuted,but less than 30% sources of rebuttal were perceived professional;about 70% rumors were perceived relevant to emergency,transmitting may be punished or relevant to safety and health;about 60% rumors were perceived inflammatory or altruistic. The results from statistical analysis of data of transmission intention and perception of rumor indicated that:(1)Relevancy between rumor and safety/health,popularity of subject in rumor,type of rumor are three linear positive and significant predictors of rumor transmission intention. (2)If rumor is perceived professional and funny,probability of it is discussed will be highest(94%);if rumor is perceived nonprofessional and professional degree of source at low level,probability of it is discussed will be lowest(51.6%). (3)Rumor transmission intention varied with level of disgust,funny,pornography,popularity of rebutter,hierarchy of leader,profession or selfish in negative quadratic model respectively. (4)Rumor transmission intention varied with level of resentment against officials or violence in positive quadratic model respectively.

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    作者简介
    熊炎:熊炎,北京市社会科学院首都综治研究所副研究员,管理学博士,研究方向为谣言治理。
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