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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    上海潜在的水风险识别与评估

    摘要

    由于承载着大量人口以及经济发展,上海面临着日益严峻的水环境压力。同时,人们对相关水风险认识模糊,影响有针对性防范措施的制定与实施。本文的目的即是探索上海面临的各种潜在水风险,构建风险指标体系,计算风险值,帮助人们认清水问题。有三类风险被归纳出,它们是:物理风险、监管风险、声誉风险。上海地区的物理风险由水量变化(洪泛)与不适合使用的水质(污染)对生态与人类健康以及工农业使用造成风险。监管风险由政府颁布的不完善的水法与规章制度漏洞引起,这种不完善存在于水价与排污制度、经营许可、水权及质量标准、水战略规划以及水相关法律法规实施中。声誉风险由公众对安全可靠水的需求与媒介报道水体污染而引发。针对上海,我们建立了一套水风险指标体系来评价上述风险。层次分析法被用来分析这个风险指标体系,并用综合指数加权求和法算出相应水风险值。通过本文研究,用水的利益相关方能更清楚认识到他们面临的水风险,推动更有针对性的可持续水管理。 <<
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    Abstract

    Shanghai is facing increasing pressure on water environment as a result of large high-density population and economic development. People have so vague awareness on the water-related risks that they can not focus measures to avoid risks. The aim of this study is to explore the potential risks that Shanghai may face stemming from its exposure to water problems. There are three kinds of risks that Shanghai faces: physical, regulatory and reputational risks. Physical risk that Shanghai faces relates to water quantity (flooding) and water quality that is unfit (pollution) for ecological and human health and use. Regulatory risk relates to the imperfection of water laws and regulations promulgated by different levels of governments. The imperfection may exist in the pricing of water supply and waste discharge, licenses to operate, water rights and quality standards, water strategy and planning promulgated by governments, and the implementation of water-related laws and regulations. Reputational risk emerges through tensions of public demand on safe water and water degradation reported by media. We set up a water-related risk indicator system to assess the above risks. The analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the indicator system and calculate the risk value based on the exponentially weighted model. This study can let stakeholders clearly recognize the water–related risks and promote more specific sustainable water management. <<
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    作者简介
    谢锋:博士
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